Why or Why Not Cancel a Race

Fall 2024 Racing and mother nature. What goes into cancelling a race

Fall Racing 2024 has been thwarted by mother nature, who has thrown hurricane threats, hurricane remnants, wind and waves our way, and dashed our ability to run races.

The Commodores Cup scheduled for November 16 is a perfect example of how difficult it is for the race chair to make a decision whether to go forward or cancel a race. The forecast from multiple online sites called for 10-15kt, gusts to 20kt. Which are okay conditions for most boats. Wave forecasts were anywhere from NE 3-7 ft with occasional 8 ft waves. The waves were more the concern with Hillsboro Inlet depth at 8 ft, low tide. Add in large waves or swell and the chances for a boat to hit bottom and experience additional issues was a great concern. My weather expert, who is a fellow sailor, told me to go forward with the race. I took the pulse of the racing club members and walked away with 50% stating they were cancelling based on the forecast. These are the facts that I had at hand to make a decision. Do I go forward with one of the larger club races of the year knowing that 50% of the fleet may not show up? Do I want to push boats possibly past their comfort limits by asking them to sail in uncomfortable waves and swells, with gusty winds that will make for more challenging sailing?

I made the decision to cancel late Friday based on the front that had moved in. The wind had piped up and NE swells were evident on the water. But mother nature threw us for a loop and Saturday dawned bright and relatively calm. Not just Thwarted but deceived by Mother Nature!

I appreciated the supportive texts from previous race chairs who have had to make similar decisions for the club. Sometimes you make the right decision and sometimes you don’t.

Future race chairs, remember this experience and don’t fall under the influence or pressure of worry and other noise that really does not affect the call. Beware of forecasts that sound scary. They can be wrong. If you are unsure whether to cancel a race, wait until the morning of the race, get up early and make the call based on actual facts. I didn’t follow the rule of Never cancel a race based on a forecast!

Congratulations to the boats that sailed on November 16. I hope you created your own regatta and enjoyed what mother nature provided.